In August, a due diligence mandate in commodity trading took me to Liberia. I went to test a deal. I came back convinced the country itself is the bigger story.
At Arizen Africa, commodity trading advisory starts with one rule: verify before you commit. We don’t trade. We make sure our clients know exactly what they are buying into: the counterparty, the asset, the paperwork and the country.
Liberia is growing, and most investors haven’t noticed
Liberia’s economy grew 5.1% in 2025, with 5.6% projected for 2026, according to figures released at the launch of the African Development Bank’s 2026 country outlook. The AfDB places Liberia among 22 African economies growing above 5%.
Mining and agriculture drive it. Gold, rubber, iron ore, timber: resources most investors still overlook.
The government isn’t waiting.
- A US$3 billion investment push across energy, mining, agriculture, infrastructure and technology, announced by President Boakai.
- Special Economic Zones with streamlined rules and tax incentives, positioned as the cornerstone of the strategy.
- Roberts International Airport under modernisation, with Ethiopian Airlines secured and further carriers in talks.
Why due diligence comes first in commodity trading
Commodity deals in frontier markets move fast and promise a lot. That is exactly why they need slowing down. On every mandate, we test four things.
- The counterparty. Who they are, who owns them, and whether they have done this before.
- The asset. Does the gold, the concession or the stock exist, in the quantity and grade claimed?
- The paperwork. Licences, export permits, title and chain of custody, all checked at source, not taken on trust.
- The country. Regulation, political risk, logistics and the local partners who make delivery possible.
A deal that survives all four is worth doing. A deal that fails one is worth walking away from. Either way, the client decides with the facts in hand.
On the road during the due diligence visit in Liberia
Priced for its risks. Underpriced for its potential.
Risk exists. It always does on a due diligence mandate. But so does runway. Liberia is one of the clearest examples I’ve seen of a market priced for its risks and underpriced for its potential.
Sometimes the assignment finds you the real opportunity.
Looking at a commodity deal in Africa? Arizen Africa provides independent due diligence and commodity trading advisory. Contact us at kevina@arizenafrica.com.